TARGET GROUP | Mid-level to senior officials in central banks and ministries of finance or economy who are directly involved in diagnosing the state of the macroeconomy and making projections. Participants should have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience, good quantitative skills, and proficiency in the use of Excel. It is highly recommended that applicants complete the online FPP.1x and FFP.2x courses or the face-to-face FPP before enrolling in this course and the online MDSx.
DESCRIPTION | This two-week course, presented by the IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development, is designed to reinforce participants’ ability to assess a country’s macroeconomic situation. It emphasizes practical tools for use in day-to-day macroeconomic analysis.
The course covers assessment of:
• The current state of the macroeconomy
• Fiscal and monetary policy stances
• Financial stability
• The medium-term prospects for the economy, especially the sustainability of public and external debt, possible misalignments of the exchange rate, and vulnerabilities arising in the different sectors
The course relies on relevant case studies to illustrate how these tools are applied and how they can contribute to the policymaking process.
OBJECTIVES | Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
• Analyze potential output and calculate output gaps, identify the expenditure composition of growth, measure inflation, assess sources of inflation, calculate Taylor rules, measure cyclically adjusted and structural fiscal balances, analyze public debt sustainability, calculate and interpret financial sector soundness and risk indicators, analyze the external position, examine external debt sustainability, and evaluate exchange rate misalignment
• Use different information, which may give conflicting signals, to assess the stance of current fiscal, monetary, and financial policies and diagnose the outlook for the economy
• Assess the medium-term prospects of the economy, especially the sustainability of public and external debt, and identify impediments to long-term growth
• Discuss possible external and internal economic risks and vulnerabilities, recognize the implications these risks may have for the economy, and identify policies to deal with them