Nowcasting – Filling an Essential Gap

Timely information on current economic conditions is critical for effective policymaking, yet official statistics are often released with significant delays. Nowcasting helps close this gap by using high-frequency data and modern econometric methods to produce reliable real-time estimates of economic indicators.

To help strengthen institutional capacity in this area, the IMF Institute for Capacity Development delivered a two-week course on Nowcasting at the JVI during January 12–23, 2026. The course brought together 27 participants from 15 countries, primarily from central banks, ministries of finance and economy, and statistical agencies, reflecting the growing importance of nowcasting for macroeconomic analysis.

The course provided a comprehensive introduction to modern nowcasting methods, including bridge equations, MIDAS models, VAR models, dynamic factor models, and machine learning approaches. Participants learned how to work with high-frequency indicators, develop nowcasting models, and produce timely estimates of GDP and other key macroeconomic variables. The program also covered methods to evaluate forecast accuracy and assess model performance in real-time applications.

This edition included a new lecture and workshop on machine learning in nowcasting, focusing on non-linear models and recent methodological advances. In addition, a guest lecturer from the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) presented the OeNB’s own short-term forecasting framework, offering practical insights into how nowcasting is used in policy institutions.

Hands-on learning was a central component of the course. Through group workshops and final projects, participants applied nowcasting techniques to real-world data and gained practical experience in model estimation and evaluation. They also exchanged views on common challenges in forecasting, including data limitations and model implementation.

The course received excellent feedback, with participants highlighting its practical focus, clear structure, and relevance to their work. Many noted that the tools and methods learned would help strengthen their forecasting frameworks and improve the timeliness and accuracy of their macroeconomic analysis.

Future editions of this cutting-edge course will evolve naturally, along with emerging tools and techniques in this area. 

Tugrul Vehbi, Senior Economist, IMF