International Capital Flows: Is This Tapering Different?

Thursday, October 21, 2021 at 15:00-16:00 Vienna time (CEST) 

Ms. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Professor of Economics and Finance, University of Maryland
Ms. Elina Ribakova, Deputy Chief Economist, Institute of International Finance (IIF)
Mr. Markus Eller, Principal Economist, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB)

Ms. Tatiana Evdokimova, Economist, Joint Vienna Institute

The COVID-19 resulted in a dramatic sudden stop of capital flows to emerging market economies. A sharp and very abrupt reversal of capital flows put the currencies of these countries under pressure and distressed local financial markets in the first half of 2020. Once the acute phase of the sell-off was over, ultra-accommodative monetary policy in advanced economies created conditions for a gradual return of capital flows to emerging markets. Now that advanced economies are experiencing a strong recovery accompanied by rising inflationary pressures, monetary policy is likely to become less expansionary, posing new challenges for emerging markets.

This webinar will take stock of the nature of international capital flows during the pandemic and discuss the challenges ahead. The taper tantrum episode of 2013 and US monetary policy tightening in 2018 had negative spillovers for emerging markets. Is this time different? Have emerging market economies learnt the lessons from the past? Are they better prepared and equipped for tighter monetary policy in advanced economies? What should be the short-term and medium-term policy response? Have advanced economies become more mindful of the potential negative spillovers of their policies? Our panel of experts will shed light on these issues and their implications for the JVI region.

The webinar will be held in English.

Participants are encouraged to ask written questions to the presenters using the webinar’s Q&A feature.

To participate in the webinar please sign up here.

A list of JVI webinars on topical issues in the field of financial stability, fiscal policy, and macroeconomics can be found here.

The schedule of JVI courses – including virtual courses – can be found here.

We look forward to continuing our engagement with you!

Hervé Joly, Director (JVI)

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