Resource-rich countries have suffered a double blow in 2020, as the hardship of the pandemic was exacerbated by the commodity price collapse. A rapid decline in resource revenues limited the space for much needed fiscal support. The terms of trade shock and resulting exchange rate pressures increased financial stability and inflationary risks. The lessons learnt during the previous commodity price slumps have helped governments design and implement responses to mitigate the consequences of the current shock. Beyond the immediate and exceptional policy responses to the pandemic, another challenge in the offing will be policy “normalization” in the post-pandemic context. Will existing long-term fiscal anchors and fiscal rules still be valid should the pandemic be followed by a prolonged period of low oil prices? To what extent should governments resort to previously accumulated resources to mitigate the shortfall of revenues? Should commodity exporters be concerned about the long-term implications of the transition towards greener growth?

The webinar addressed these issues. The panelists discussed challenges, good practices as well as short-term and long-term policy implications of the ongoing crisis. Olivier Basdevant spoke about fiscal policy challenges for resource-rich countries. Annette Kyobe and Sabit Khakimzhanov commented on Russia’s and Kazakhstan’s macro-financial response to the pandemic.

Tatiana Evdokimova, Economist, JVI