TARGET GROUP | Junior and middle-level officials from ministries of finance, central banks, and other interested public institutions. Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience, a basic understanding of time-series econometrics and be comfortable using EViews (econometric software package). It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed a few general macroeconomic courses, such as Macroeconomic Forecasting and Analysis (MFA), Macroeconomic Diagnostic (MDS), face-to-face or online.
DESCRIPTION | This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, provides participants with cutting-edge nowcasting tools that familiarize them with the concepts and methods to incorporate high-frequency economic indicators into the forecasting process, while integrating this training into technical assistance on data compilation and dissemination. Each topic is complemented by hands-on workshops and assignments designed to illuminate the steps required to formulate a nowcasting model and generate a nowcast. The NWC course is five days in face-to-face mode, or nine days in virtual mode.
OBJECTIVES | Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
· Understand and be proficient in the steps required to manage time-series data in EViews, estimate an OLS regression and calculate its associated forecasts in EViews.
· Formulate several useful statistical procedures in EViews, including consolidation of time series from higher to lower frequencies; interpolation techniques; seasonal adjustment; and use of leading indicators.
· Identify appropriate high-frequency indicators useful for the nowcasting macroeconomic variables and prepare them for use in a nowcasting exercise.
· Formulate and estimate a nowcasting regression using several approaches (including Bridge, MIDAS, and U-MIDAS estimators).
· Generate a nowcast from the base regression and consolidate competing forecasts using combination forecasts.
· Evaluate the accuracy of the nowcast using several forecasting performance indicators.
· Apply the nowcasting tools to their own country data and interpret the nowcast appropriately in policy making settings.