Nowcasting

NWC

TARGET GROUP | Junior and middle-level officials from ministries of finance, central banks, and other interested public institutions. Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience, a basic understanding of time-series econometrics and be comfortable using EViews (econometric software package). It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed a few general macroeconomic courses, such as Macroeconomic Forecasting and Analysis (MFA), Macroeconomic Diagnostic (MDS), face-to-face or online.

DESCRIPTION | This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, provides participants with cutting-edge nowcasting tools that familiarize them with the concepts and methods to incorporate high-frequency economic indicators into the forecasting process, while integrating this training into technical assistance on data compilation and dissemination. Each topic is complemented by hands-on workshops and assignments designed to illuminate the steps required to formulate a nowcasting model and generate a nowcast. The NWC course is five days in face-to-face mode, or nine days in virtual mode.

OBJECTIVES | Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

· Understand and be proficient in the steps required to manage time-series data in EViews, estimate an OLS regression and calculate its associated forecasts in EViews.

· Formulate several useful statistical procedures in EViews, including consolidation of time series from higher to lower frequencies; interpolation techniques; seasonal adjustment; and use of leading indicators.

· Identify appropriate high-frequency indicators useful for the nowcasting macroeconomic variables and prepare them for use in a nowcasting exercise.

· Formulate and estimate a nowcasting regression using several approaches (including Bridge, MIDAS, and U-MIDAS estimators).

· Generate a nowcast from the base regression and consolidate competing forecasts using combination forecasts.

· Evaluate the accuracy of the nowcast using several forecasting performance indicators.

· Apply the nowcasting tools to their own country data and interpret the nowcast appropriately in policy making settings.

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Course Details

Start: 20230220Feb 20
End: 20230224Feb 24

Language: English

Sponsoring Organization: IMF

Admin Arrangements


Application Deadline: November 27, 2022