Systemic Macro-Financial Risk Analysis

TARGET AUDIENCE | Officials from central bank financial stability departments, banking regulatory and supervisory bodies, and ministries of finance.

QUALIFICATIONS | Participants are expected to have a degree in economics or finance. Prior experience in financial stability analysis is highly desirable.

COURSE DESCRIPTION | This course, presented by the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, offers a comprehensive overview of the theories, tools, and techniques essential for conducting robust financial stability analysis. The course begins with an introduction to the foundational concepts of macroprudential stress testing for banks. Participants will explore the key components of quantitative tools to assess risks and vulnerabilities in the banking system, starting with financial soundness indicators and business model analysis based on financial statements. This part is accompanied by detailed illustrations of a standard bank stress testing framework applied in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and various technical assistance missions. Participants will actively engage in hands-on sessions, covering key areas such as scenario design, satellite model estimation, and capital impact assessment.

Building on these foundations, the course introduces cutting-edge advanced topics for a holistic macrofinancial systemic risk assessment. Topics would include (i) risks and vulnerabilities of nonbank financial institutions, non-financial corporates, and households, (ii) a high-level overview of contagion and interconnectedness analysis, (iii) feedback loops between the real economy and the financial sector, as well as systemwide risk analysis, (iv) an overview of climate risks analysis. Country case studies, under varying data constraints and availability, will be discussed. This course also provides a deeper understanding of other financial stability components such as risk premium, various financial instruments, hedging, understanding models, etc.

Presentations are complemented by hands-on sessions using prototype tools and modules to guide participants through the full spectrum of financial stability analysis. In addition, the course addresses the critical aspect of how to effectively communicate the analytical outcomes and integrate them into the policy-making process. The program concludes with a roundtable discussion, offering a platform for participants to exchange insights and share experiences from their respective countries.

COURSE OBJECTIVES | Upon completion, participants should be able to:

• Summarize the tools and data needed and thorough monitoring of sectoral and systemic risk.

• Identify key sources of financial stability risks using various tools, data, risk indicators, and understand how such risks can be monitored and assessed. Grasp the principles of developing macro-financial stress scenarios.

• Build models that relate macro variables to the time series of risk indicators. Analyze risk transmission and feedback between macro variables and risk indicators for banks, nonbank financial institutions, corporates, households, and sovereign, including climate risk transmission channels and sovereign-bank linkages.

• Learn to apply quantitative models and a fully-fledged stress testing approach in projecting financial outcomes and assessing impacts on financial entities and systems and evaluate the resilience of financial entities and systems under solvency and liquidity stress.

• Learn to develop models that are capturing second-round effects or interactions between different risk types.

• Comprehend advanced quantitative models used in the industry for financial stability analysis and discuss their integration into existing frameworks.

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Course Details

Start: 20260615Jun 15
End: 20260626Jun 26

Language: English

Sponsoring Organization: IMF

Admin Arrangements


Application Deadline: March 15, 2026

Apply here